Looking Ahead: Who Can Carry Pennsylvania?

Among Democrats, Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in part because Clinton’s primary supporters are less likely than Obama supporters to defect from the Democrat if their primary candidate were the nominee. Eighty-nine percent of Clinton primary voters say they would vote for Clinton if she won the nomination, but only 82 percent of Obama supporters say they would vote for Obama if he won the nomination. The reason is simple: Obama supporters are more likely than Clinton supporters to have a favorable view of McCain, by 32 to 27 percent.

Much more striking, in a matchup with McCain, Clinton primary supporters are considerably less supportive of Obama than are Obama primary supporters of Clinton. Just 49 percent of registered Democrats intending to vote for Clinton in the primary say they would vote for Obama in a general-election contest with McCain; 60 percent of Democrats intending to vote for Obama say they would vote for Clinton. Twelve percent of Clinton supporters say they would choose not to vote at all rather than vote for Obama. The reason for this is equally simple: Clinton supporters are less likely than Obama supporters to have a favorable view of the rival Democrat. Forty-six percent of Obama supporters have a favorable view of Clinton, but just 36 percent of Clinton supporters have a favorable view of Obama.

“It’s more than a little ironic that one of Senator Clinton’s main assets in the nomination campaign is that Obama supporters are very likely to back her in November while one of Senator Obama’s liabilities is that Clinton supporters would be much less likely to back him,” Hagen said. “If Senator Clinton can claim to be more likely to carry Pennsylvania in the fall, that claim rests less on her potential to win the votes of Republicans and Independents than on the hostility among her Democratic supporters to her rival for the nomination.”