When it comes to sports gambling, there is no event quite like March Madness. This year, an estimated $3.1 billion is expected to be legally wagered on this year’s men and women’s NCAA tournaments. For context, that’s more than double what was wagered last month during the Super Bowl. 

Both casual sports fans and routine sports gamblers will be heavily invested in the games over the next several weeks, with everyone feverishly attempting to predict a winning bracket. But when it comes to picking these games, is there actually a method to the madness? 

Sports economist and Associate Professor of Instruction at Temple University’s School of Sport, Tourism and Hospitality Management George Diemer specializes in the business of sports. His research has been published in scholarly journals that include The American Economist, International Journal of Sport Finance, the Journal of Sports Economics, and The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics. 

Temple Now caught up with Diemer to get a better understanding of just how likely it is to actually pick a winning bracket this spring. 

Temple Now: Long before legal sports gambling was a thing, March Madness was around. What has made it so popular? 

George Diemer: It was very popular, and in fact, it was so popular they wrote the legislation around it. Initially, what they were trying to figure out was how to make sports gambling illegal, but they didn't want everybody who plays March Madness to be a criminalized. So, they made a distinction between games of luck and skill, and March Madness brackets were determined to be games of skill, so it was legal. They did the same thing with Fan Duel and Draft Kings, which is why those fantasy sports leagues were one of the first legalized versions of gambling; because legislation determined those were games of skill.  

TN: Is that accurate though, with regard to picking games during March Madness? It sure seems like there is a lot more luck involved than skill. 

Diemer: Oh, yeah, there is plenty of luck involved, and anybody that's tried to win a bracket can tell you that. There’s actually some research that tries to quantify just how much of this is luck and how much of this is skill. Certainly, there is an element of skill, as you work to understand what the point spreads are and what they're telling us, but there’s a lot of luck, too. 

TN: So, let’s say you’re trying to get the perfect bracket. What is the method to the madness, no pun intended? 

Diemer: I compute the odds. You can compute the implied probability from looking at the teams in this. And so, the odds that I come up with when I’m computing are that Duke has about a 24% chance of winning it all. Then Florida’s next at 20%, Auburn’s at about 16% to 17%, Houston’s at about 12.5% and then it drops a bit on Alabama’s at 5%. Tennessee’s at about 4.5%. 

You can start there and then you can start to look at the money lines, and you think in terms of probability. That’s one of the key parts of this. 

TN: Every year, there is the inevitable upset. We saw Virginia lose as a No. 1 seed to a No. 16 seed a few years back. Is there any way to predict for upsets? 

Diemer: What I do is I take a look at the odds of each bracket. I see who I think can come out of the different four brackets. But what happens is that you then deal with Bayesian logic, as we say in mathematics or statistics, where every step you take, you’re forced to reevaluate everything. Because we are forced evaluate everything prior to when the games even start. So, you can look back and say, ‘Boy, I made a mistake there.’ But was it really a mistake? I’m not so sure, because we don’t have the luxury of seeing the games play out after a round or two. 

TN: So, who do you have winning your bracket? 

Diemer: I’m going with Duke. I’m going with the safe pick. But I’m a little bit upset because there was no local team out there this year, so I’m kind of down about it a little bit, but I do like Duke’s chances. 

Also read 

The School of Sport, Tourism and Hospitality Management: Established in 1998, The School of Sport, Tourism and Hospitality Management (STHM) has a distinguished tradition preparing leaders in the sport, recreation, entertainment, event, tourism and hospitality industries. It is the largest provider of talent for these industries in the Greater Philadelphia region and beyond. 

The bachelor of science in sport and entertainment management at Temple: With Temple’s bachelor of science in sport and entertainment management, students gain the skills and experience needed to start a career in the fast-paced sport and entertainment management industry. With experience-focused curriculum and a vast industry network, STHM gives students one-of-a-kind access to the tools and resources needed to succeed. 

Become an Owl: Learn more about applying for one of our undergraduate, graduate or professional programs.