Temple political scientist Christopher Wlezien cowrote an article which describes preliminary results of his 2010 election forecasting simulations. "By our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 229 seats versus 206 for the Democrats for a 50-seat loss for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have a 79% chance of winning the House," wrote Wlezien with co-authors Joseph Bafumi of Dartmouth and Robert Erickson of Columbia. "Applying our model to 2010 assumes that the forces at work in 2010 are unchanged from past midterm elections. However, we should be wary of the possibility that the underlying model of the national vote works differently in 2010 or is influenced by variables we have not taken into account."