At the moment President Obama leads Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points in the Gallup Poll and by 4 points in the Reuters/Ipsos and Rasmussen polls. A study co-authored by Temple's Christopher Wlezien found that the candidate who led in national polls two weeks after the political conventions has won the popular vote in the past 15 presidential elections. "Two weeks from now, we're going to have a very good idea of who is going to win," Wlezien said.